Looking at the upcoming 2020 election, what I see is a disconnect at so many levels it is hard to know where to start.
Joe “girl-groping” Biden has obvious signs of mental decline, including dementia and likely Parkinson’s. He is a gaffe-o-matic, and can’t hardy draw a dozen people to his rallies. He flip-flops more than a Hawaiian shoe-store. He has all the charisma of a badly-preserved mummy. He’s being shown to have been involved in illegal and immoral shenanigans during the Obama admin. There is almost daily news about revelations between him, China, Ukraine and Russian companies via Hunter, and more.
Kamala “Heels-up” Harris is so unlikable she was one of the first to drop out of the Dem field early on in the race. She’s a favored candidate of national enemies like China. She has an atrocious record as a prosecutor and senator, and a high dislike score among black men. Her voting record is to the left of Bernie “the socialist” Sanders. She was smirking and unlikable in the VP debate, and lost so badly all the pundits could talk about was the fly that landed on Pence’s hair.
Most place you drive, there are far, FAR more TRUMP signs than Biden signs.
There have been a number of 1,000+ boat parades to support Trump, Biden managed get one with about a dozen, and half of those were media. The difference in voter enthusiasm is palpable.
Most people (even many on the left) recognize that the riots are entirely the violent spasms of the radical hard-left activists, even though the media tries hard to blame Trump. The “protesters” are openly extorting people and businesses to keep them in line.
Everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 still has the same reasons to vote for him again, and a lot of people who sat it out have a new reason to vote for him given his track record of fighting the Depp State Swamp. On the other side, a lot of Dems who voted for Hillary (the First Woman Pres Candidate!) don’t like Creepy “hair-sniffing, little-girl pawing” Joe, and there are thousands of “#walkaway” videos on YouTube by former Dems leaving the party.
The big tech companies are obviously coordinating to silence anything conservative, pro-Trump, or about Q-Anon; they are pushing The Big Lie hard and often. They are actively and openly throttling or shutting down anyone who links to anything Q, and particularly the NY Post article about Hunter Biden.
Trump has Big Tech against him, and Establishment Republicans, and all Democrats, all the multinational conglomerates, the big banks, most of the Wall Street big names, and most of the big international adversaries like China are against him, and all those same people/orgs endorse Biden. He’s making all the right enemies if he’s standing for the average American worker.
The Dems have all but said in so many words they plan on steeling the electing with fraud.
There are news stories of black men approving of Trump by as high as the mid-30%s. Latino approval is up. Non-college white approval is up, and enthusiasm is WAY up in that particular group. Dem enthusiasm is in the toilet. Check out this Biden Rally.
Dem fear of the Wuhan Flu is stupidly high, most Republicans are ready to get back to normal yesterday. Dem fear is so high I’m seeing reports of people sanitizing their ballots and spoiling them, and it looks like they will both avoid voting in person at higher rates than Rs, they are also spoiling their mail-in ballots at about a 2:1 rate.
There are a large number of stories of incompetence and problems, particularly in Dem run counties or states, of screw-ups or problems with lost or misprinted ballots and envelopes.
And in spite of all that, the polls officially show Biden ahead. I don’t believe them for a second; it looks like they are trying to make the expected epic vote-rigging fraud look plausible.
Given all the unknowns and chaos, I think is it completely foolhardy to try to make any sort of prediction as to the outcome of the fast-approaching shit-show of lawsuits and lies.
So here are my predictions:
Starting with the basics as “Swing The Election,” I’d expect the following adjustments from baseline.
College educated whites: turnout down 3% from 72 to 69%, and shifting 1% toward Trump.
Non-college educated whites: turnout up 2% to 57%, shifting 2% toward Trump (71%).
Black turnout unchanged, R vote percentage bumping from 8% to 12%
Latino turnout unchanged, R vote percentage rising from 28% to 31%
Asian and Other unchanged.
Doing that gets him 320 EC votes.
I expect at least one state will be lost to fraud, so that’s about 310 or so, depending on which state gets the most epic vote fraud in US history.
HOWEVER, I see the real possibility that due to Q-Anon / Trump anti-fraud plans, ongoing October Surprises, incompetence losing a lot of votes, stupid voters, people sick of the whole thing, and 2020 being what it is, the possible numbers above might be conservative. If the Trump Blowout scenario develops, then we might have (looking at the same categories as above)
65% turnout, 50% Trump
60% turnout / 74% Trump
55% turnout / 20% Trump
unch / 33%
unch / 30%
Nothing lost to fraud
In that case, Trump gets 353 EC votes. Trumpslide. Blowout. We’ll need a new Ark to survive the liberal tears.
And then the riots and arrests start. Might want to start loading magazines now.
UPDATE 18 Oct 2020: The hunter Biden story in the NY Post has been going for a couple-four of days now. Still no denial by Hunter or Joe Biden. Starting to gain some visibility, rumors of much more to come very soon, including things would obviously totally compromise him to Chinese control. IFF this stuff really gains traction, and the rumors of the stuff with kids makes the news and isn’t promptly and vigorously refuted (not just denied, but actually refuted), then 350 EC votes might be the floor of Trumps win. If that happens, then I’d expect the tolerance for lefty violence will be low, and push-back defense on it may be… enthusiastic.